Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8263…e57e sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$884 (-9%) realized −$892 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$638per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$660
7 days−$1,215
14 days−$884
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,008
other 12% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 25% 25% -29.5%
≤30d 14 -5.8% -14.7% 36% 36% -18.6%
≤90d 14 -5.8% -14.7% 36% 36% -18.6%
all 14 -5.8% -14.7% 36% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 36% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -26.4%
15% -30.3% 36% -33.5%
20% -37.2% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$786 vs −$535 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized−$892
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$638
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 44¢ $708 $717 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $710 −$710 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $854 −$854 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $835 +$905 +108%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $370 −$370 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $855 −$855 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $930 −$72 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $571 −$571 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $370 +$1,311 +354%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $700 +$700 +100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $238 −$238 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $600 +$703 +117%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $665 +$313 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $721 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $14 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $4 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $8 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $15 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $35 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $7 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $4 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $3 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $149 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $2 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $3 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $1 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $190 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $9 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $5 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $262 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $854 37h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $257 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $35 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $23 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $14 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $18 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $137 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $134 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $45 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.67 · official $716.67 (match) · 177 history records