Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x8268…573c world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 19% −$1
politics 18% +$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.1%
all 41 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage299d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $21 $0 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $23 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $55 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $21 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $24 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $23 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $49 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $27 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.40 · official $44.40 (match) · 141 history records