Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x826b…8f0e other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$11
other 13% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$7
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 42 -3.1% -12.3% 17% 2% -10.0%
all 54 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage620d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $8 +$5 +73%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26? Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $27 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $1 $0 +1%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 16h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 34h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 36h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $6 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.46 · official $25.46 (match) · 300 history records