Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x826d…171c crypto 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 833d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+1%) realized +$138 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%84W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$153
14 days−$153
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$166
other 7% +$30
sports 5% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.0% -55.7% 25% 25% -44.0%
≤30d 11 -43.4% -48.8% 27% 27% -41.5%
≤90d 176 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 47% -11.6%
all 177 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 47% -10.9%
10% -19.2% 47% -19.4%
15% -27.0% 46% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 45% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$50 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

833d coverage
Net worth$651
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses84 / 93
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage833d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $411 $353 −$58 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $194 $271 +$77 (+39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$63 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$40 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $285 −$160 -56%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $118 −$11 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $60 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $247 −$158 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 02 $177 −$139 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 01 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 01 $61 −$43 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $106 −$65 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 01 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $123 +$166 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 26 $17 +$21 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 26 $30 +$37 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 26 $36 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 26 $41 +$38 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 26 $32 +$37 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 25 $30 +$92 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 25 $36 +$33 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 25 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 25 $60 +$56 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 25 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 25 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 25 $40 +$37 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 25 $40 +$30 +74%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $30 +$97 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 25 $30 +$32 +107%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $70 +$55 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 23 $54 +$51 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 19 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 19 $102 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 19 $60 −$38 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $80 9d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 49¢ $58 28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $118 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 45¢ $120 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 67¢ $183 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $98 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $84 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $94 45d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.92 · official $650.92 (match) · 642 history records