Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

82 0x826e…5fc2 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-5.4%	-14.4%	86%	29%	-0.8%
≤30d	7	-5.4%	-14.4%	86%	29%	-0.8%
≤90d	7	-5.4%	-14.4%	86%	29%	-0.8%
all	7	-5.4%	-14.4%	86%	29%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	29%	-0.8%
10%	-22.6%	0%	-10.3%
15%	-30.1%	0%	-18.9%
20%	-36.9%	0%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$34 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.8 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 25	$42	+$9	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 25	$47	+$4	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 25	$43	+$8	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 25	$49	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 25	$50	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 25	$43	−$34	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 25	$46	+$4	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$42	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$47	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$49	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$46	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records