Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x826f…45bb world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
sports 29% −$14
other 14% +$8
politics 8% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 56 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 4% -9.5%
all 58 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage537d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $33 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $77 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $77 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $98 −$3 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 +$2 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $138 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $67 −$5 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $27 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $293 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $293 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $37 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 49m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $10 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $10 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $1 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records