Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

82 0x8270…69c1 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$65 (-14%) realized −$62 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-25.8%	-32.8%	29%	29%	-27.8%
≤30d	7	-25.8%	-32.8%	29%	29%	-27.8%
≤90d	7	-25.8%	-32.8%	29%	29%	-27.8%
all	7	-25.8%	-32.8%	29%	29%	-27.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.8%	29%	-27.8%
10%	-39.3%	29%	-34.7%
15%	-45.1%	29%	-41.0%
20%	-50.5%	29%	-46.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$46 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized−$62

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)7 / 11

History coverage3d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$28	$27	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$116	+226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$29	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$31	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$51	46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.48 · official $115.48 (match) · 13 history records