Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8276…ca4b other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$13
politics 9% −$6
other 6% −$29
sports 2% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +4.9% -5.1% 19% 6% -7.0%
≤90d 52 -8.7% -17.4% 23% 12% -14.1%
all 70 -4.1% -13.2% 24% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 11% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 11% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 11% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage605d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $9 +$8 +79%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +140%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $6 +$5 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 02 $22 +$9 +40%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24? Mar 26 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 8h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 10h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 29h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $9 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.70 · official $41.70 (match) · 282 history records