Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8276…ab04 crypto 1141 markets active 4d ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,117 (-4%) realized −$1,117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%563W / 578L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$74
14 days+$69
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$427
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -25.0% -32.2% 52% 35% -1.5%
≤30d 197 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 45% -9.6%
≤90d 1002 -18.1% -25.9% 43% 41% -13.1%
all 1141 -7.9% -16.7% 49% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 45% -10.8%
10% -24.7% 45% -19.4%
15% -32.0% 44% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 43% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses563 / 578
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1141 / 1141
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1141 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $239 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $118 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $113 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -93%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 27 $17 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $202 +$156 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 27 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $188 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records