Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8278…b144 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 32% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 45 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage461d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $26 −$1 -2%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Aug 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $16 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kyrie Irving opt in to his player option? Jul 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $24 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $24 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $4 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $15 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $25 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 14d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? SELL No 97¢ $1 344d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $7 344d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $7 344d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $6 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.52 · official $26.68 (match) · 135 history records