Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x827a…a12b other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 1098d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,368 (+17%) realized +$3,171 · open +$1,197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%59W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$6,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$313
14 days+$138
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$1,430
other 30% −$2,235
sports 6% +$344
world 2% +$87
politics 1% +$221
tech 0% +$27
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +55.6% +40.8% 50% 45% +56.7%
≤30d 59 +36.8% +23.8% 42% 36% -8.3%
≤90d 84 +15.5% +4.5% 40% 35% -12.0%
all 151 -1.8% -11.2% 39% 34% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 34% -24.4%
10% -19.7% 32% -31.6%
15% -27.4% 28% -38.2%
20% -34.6% 23% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$40 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1098d coverage
Net worth$6,587
Realized+$3,171
Unrealized+$1,197
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses59 / 92
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions17
Markets (closed)151 / 189
History coverage1098d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3,072 $4,463 +$1,391 (+45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,275 $1,137 −$138 (-11%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $512 $509 −$3 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 71¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 47¢ 80¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+71%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 22¢ 51¢ $14 $32 +$18 (+129%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-9%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 8¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-61%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+23%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 34¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Cody Gakpo record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+361%)
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 17¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Yes 26¢ 15¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 24 $15 +$22 +142%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 Jun 24 $31 +$174 +565%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 +$10 +62%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 21 $41 +$131 +320%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$8 -57%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 20 $25 +$101 +401%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 −$129 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,281 −$370 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $144 −$141 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$146 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $239 +$200 +84%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $79 −$78 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$11 +262%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 Jun 14 $10 +$139 +1356%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Wil Jun 14 $102 +$438 +428%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 +$97 +414%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $307 +$5 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 +$26 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 SELL 46¢ $10 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY 13¢ $20 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $30 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 31¢ $37 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $102 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND BUY 1¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,520 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $580 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,160 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $61 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,586.57 · official $6,676.46 · 1792 history records