Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x827a…88cd other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$46
14 days−$33
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$23
crypto 4% +$9
sports 2% −$28
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +38.2% +25.0% 50% 46% -6.6%
≤30d 68 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 41% -7.8%
≤90d 68 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 41% -7.8%
all 68 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 41% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 41% -7.8%
10% -19.0% 28% -16.7%
15% -26.8% 24% -24.7%
20% -34.0% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage24d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$34 -85%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $141 −$140 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $88 +$8 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $86 +$39 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$17 -74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$8 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$29 -73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 +$76 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$82 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $141 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $88 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.39 · official $41.03 (match) · 108 history records