Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x827b…9015 world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%36W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$14
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
other 29% +$6
politics 14% +$1
sports 11% −$1
crypto 4% −$33
economics 3% +$1
finance 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 1% -9.8%
all 105 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses36 / 69
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage284d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $230 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $219 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $112 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 +$7 +19%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $107 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $225 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -21%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $217 +$9 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $336 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $105 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $166 −$9 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $351 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $107 −$4 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $108 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $353 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $105 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $130 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $123 −$3 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $237 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $512 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 −$2 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $381 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $406 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $126 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $116 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $116 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $114 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $114 35h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $87 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $114 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $112 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $112 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $125 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $125 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $38 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $107 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $107 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $107 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $105 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $118 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $118 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $117 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $117 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $43 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $63 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.68 · official $125.55 (match) · 431 history records