Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x827f…80b6
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$49 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 41¢ 74¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% +$21
other 21% +$30
tech 21% −$1
crypto 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 9h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $104 18h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $100 24h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 65¢ $101 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 28h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 50% +6.3%
≤30d 4 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 4 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 50% +6.3%
all 4 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 50% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% +6.3%
10% -21.5% 50% -3.8%
15% -29.1% 25% -13.1%
20% -36.0% 25% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.72 · official $220.72 (match) · 13 history records