Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x8281…8907 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+33%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$23
other 41% −$3
world 7% −$2
crypto 5% −$2
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.5% -1.9% 28% 25% +20.7%
≤30d 32 +8.5% -1.9% 28% 25% +20.7%
≤90d 32 +8.5% -1.9% 28% 25% +20.7%
all 32 +8.5% -1.9% 28% 25% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 25% +20.7%
10% -11.3% 22% +9.2%
15% -19.8% 22% -1.4%
20% -27.7% 22% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1469%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +131%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 57m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 57m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 69 history records