Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8281…1f0f crypto 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$805 (-4%) realized −$805 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%235W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$159
14 days+$178
30 days−$1,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,078
other 0% −$77
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +16.5% +5.4% 68% 39% +1.0%
≤30d 445 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 43% -14.4%
≤90d 447 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 43% -14.6%
all 447 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 43% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 39% -22.8%
15% -24.9% 37% -30.3%
20% -32.2% 35% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$49 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses235 / 212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)447 / 448
History coverage56d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$62 +594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.82 (match) · 2332 history records