Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8283…a336 crypto 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized +$78 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%247W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$7
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$54
weather 42% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.1% -32.3% 50% 8% -8.9%
≤30d 14 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 21% -8.4%
≤90d 420 -2.8% -12.0% 55% 45% -11.1%
all 445 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 46% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 46% -10.8%
10% -20.3% 32% -19.3%
15% -28.0% 4% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses247 / 198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)445 / 446
History coverage120d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? No 79¢ 40¢ $176 $90 −$86 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $175 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $171 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $156 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $316 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $152 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 30 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 30 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 30 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 30 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 30 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 30 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 30 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 30 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 30 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 30 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 30 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 30 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 30 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 30 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 30 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 30 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 30 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 19 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $178 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $171 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $100 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $150 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $154 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $161 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $153 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.24 · official $100.27 · 1291 history records