Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8284…6b8e world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-7%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$5
sports 33% −$108
politics 25% $0
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.7% -6.2% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 17% 17% -20.7%
≤90d 13 -23.8% -31.0% 23% 8% -15.3%
all 13 -23.8% -31.0% 23% 8% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 8% -15.3%
10% -37.6% 0% -23.4%
15% -43.6% 0% -30.8%
20% -49.2% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$31 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage73d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? May 26 $67 −$18 -27%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 0.5 May 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 22 $68 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 27 $446 +$28 +6%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 26 $446 $0 +0%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $349 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $36 2h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $33 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes $25 3h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes $26 3h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $25 4h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $26 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $18 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $16 3d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Cyprus $13 19d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Cyprus $13 19d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $26 19d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $25 19d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 19d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 19d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 19d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? SELL Yes $29 27d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? SELL Yes $20 27d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? BUY Yes $34 27d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? BUY Yes $33 27d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $25 31d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $24 31d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL Yes $25 31d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL Yes $24 31d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? BUY Yes $24 31d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? BUY Yes $24 31d
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $32 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records