Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8285…f40d politics 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 119L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$6
other 35% −$4
sports 12% +$34
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +3.1% -6.7% 6% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 6% -9.3%
10% -15.6% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×21.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage126d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $173 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $15 15h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 15h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 16h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 22h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 30h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 30h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $88 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records