Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8288…5519
other · 163 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14,343 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,607 · open +$2,413
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,380
Realized−$16,607
Unrealized+$2,413
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses56 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)169 / 163
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,217
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%
Chart Positions 21 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,585
7 days−$8,288
14 days−$7,891
30 days−$16,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 29¢ 56¢ $1,569 $3,020 +$1,452 (+93%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 17¢ 42¢ $905 $2,281 +$1,375 (+152%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $300 $1,575 +$1,275 (+425%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $300 $1,125 +$825 (+275%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $300 $153 −$147 (-49%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $176 $94 −$82 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $300 $75 −$225 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $15 $23 +$7 (+47%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $12 −$288 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $54 $5 −$49 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $225 $3 −$222 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$111 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$300 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $90 −$111 -124%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,618 +$3,056 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $215 −$94 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1,218 −$1,218 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $529 +$4,350 +822%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $507 +$2,990 +590%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $84 +$76 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,193 +$2,956 +248%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $565 +$18 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,081 +$3,391 +314%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $320 −$257 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $675 −$656 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1,295 +$3,806 +294%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1,249 −$1,154 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $2,449 +$4,719 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $231 −$94 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $890 +$3,184 +358%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $80 +$357 +445%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$11,628
sports 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 8m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 8m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 8m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 27m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $408 31m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $221 32m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $288 32m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 32m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $73 40m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $125 40m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.3% -6.6% 27% 23% -30.0%
≤30d 81 +13.8% +3.0% 31% 28% -23.8%
≤90d 169 +45.0% +31.2% 33% 31% -18.4%
all 169 +45.0% +31.2% 33% 31% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.2% 31% -18.4%
10% +18.7% 31% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here +7.2% 30% -33.3%
20% -3.3% 29% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,380.20 · official $8,402.96 (match) · 3500 history records