Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
82 0x8288…f291 politics 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$993 (+0%) realized +$993 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,267per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$110
other 40% +$175
sports 8% +$889
world 2% −$2
economics 2% −$5
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +7.2% -3.0% 10% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 99 -10.2% -18.8% 4% 3% -9.4%
all 163 +0.4% -9.1% 17% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 9% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 9% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,663) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$6 · ×10.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized+$993
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,267
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $453 $453 +$0 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $340 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,811 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,463 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,808 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,155 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,613 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $75 +$47 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $72 +$120 +165%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $645 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,752 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $685 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,695 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,870 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,286 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $6,346 −$7 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,185 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,267 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,292 −$4 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $915 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $3,132 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,744 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $3,092 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $4,189 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 18h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 20h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 45h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 47h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $246 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $253 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $254 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $208 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,285 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,286 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,447 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,448 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $453 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,687 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,690 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,541 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,544 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,575 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,372 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.37 · official $793.37 (match) · 527 history records