Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

82 0x828b…fe53 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$970 (+79%) realized +$1,102 · open −$132

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$246per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-21.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	+74.6%	+58.0%	50%	50%	+121.0%
≤90d	4	-12.7%	-21.0%	25%	25%	+107.2%
all	4	-12.7%	-21.0%	25%	25%	+107.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.0%	25%	+107.2%
10%	-28.6%	25%	+87.3%
15%	-35.5%	25%	+69.2%
20%	-41.8%	25%	+52.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +129% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +129% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,216 vs −$85 · ×14.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.75 per $1 lost it wins $4.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage

Net worth$337

Realized+$1,102

Unrealized−$132

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage82d

Avg bet$246

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	16¢	12¢	$469	$337	−$132 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$214	−$210	-98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?	May 24	$488	+$1,216	+249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Mar 28	$42	−$42	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Mar 28	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$481	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$214	4d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,704	25d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?	BUY Yes	28¢	$488	25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$42	82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	82d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.40 · official $337.40 (match) · 6 history records