Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x828b…a12b
crypto · 445 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,329 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,330 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,356
Realized−$4,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses136 / 394
Open positions2
Markets (closed)530 / 445
History coverage5d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day510.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 530 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,451
7 days−$4,330
14 days−$4,330
30 days−$4,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $201 $212 +$11 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 31¢ 100¢ $56 $180 +$123 (+219%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $114 $175 +$61 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $122 $173 +$51 (+42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $66 $151 +$85 (+130%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $110 $131 +$21 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 50¢ 56¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 50¢ 44¢ $88 $78 −$10 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $32 $63 +$32 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $28 $51 +$23 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $28 $51 +$24 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $27 $51 +$24 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $29 $50 +$21 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$5 -435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $163 −$157 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$22 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$2 -671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$35 -1270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$14 +918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$11 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $68 −$58 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$14 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$32 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$17 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$75 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,747
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $149 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $72 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $64 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $127 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $114 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $45 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 530 -15.2% -23.3% 26% 22% -23.4%
≤30d 530 -15.2% -23.3% 26% 22% -23.4%
≤90d 530 -15.2% -23.3% 26% 22% -23.4%
all 530 -15.2% -23.3% 26% 22% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover510.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 22% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 19% -30.7%
15% -37.3% 16% -37.4%
20% -43.5% 15% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,356.32 · official $4,357.07 (match) · 3500 history records