trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 80% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 23 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 91% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $4,161 | $4,159 | −$2 (-0%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2,158 | $2,159 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $901 | $900 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $701 | $698 | −$3 (-0%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $91 | $1 | −$90 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 28 | $6,552 | −$12 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? | Apr 25 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? | Apr 21 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? | Apr 19 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 01 | $92 | $0 | +0% |
| Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Mar 15 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Katana FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Mar 03 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? | Mar 03 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? | Feb 24 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | Feb 24 | $81 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Feb 12 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Feb 05 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | Jan 29 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $80 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Jan 24 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 22 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | Jan 21 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Jan 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Jan 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jan 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 18? | Jan 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jan 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |