Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x828f…fa80 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,538 (-27%) realized −$3,595 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%24W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$2,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$453
7 days+$530
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2,119
sports 19% +$554
crypto 12% +$20
world 11% −$832
politics 5% −$349
culture 2% −$200
economics 1% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.9% +5.8% 43% 43% +70.6%
≤30d 24 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 29% +3.1%
≤90d 24 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 29% +3.1%
all 95 -20.5% -28.1% 25% 25% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 25% -35.5%
10% -35.0% 25% -41.7%
15% -41.3% 23% -47.3%
20% -47.0% 20% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$105 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$2,057
Realized−$3,595
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses24 / 71
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)95 / 107
History coverage476d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,250 $1,353 +$103 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$485 +473%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$187 +365%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$81 +160%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$14 -28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $198 −$198 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev Nov 22 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out in 2025? Nov 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Oct 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Sep 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 23 $100 −$65 -65%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Sep 23 $250 −$209 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $100 −$100 -100%
John Bolton in jail in 2025? Aug 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? Aug 20 $250 −$93 -37%
UFC Fight Night: Bekoev vs. Belgaroui Aug 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Aug 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Venezuela win Intervision 2025? Aug 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a club from France win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 14 $200 +$208 +104%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $100 −$100 -100%
2025 July hottest on record? Jul 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? Jul 05 $200 +$976 +488%
Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? Jul 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 25 $100 −$61 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $588 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 26h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 28h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $51 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 BUY 72¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 35¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic BUY 14¢ $103 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,029 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,057.18 · official $2,057.18 (match) · 189 history records