Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8290…80ab world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
politics 25% −$1
other 16% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 45 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage273d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $19 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $1 $0 +17%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 11h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $19 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $16 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $35 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $36 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $36 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $27 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records