Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8291…e1a2 crypto 205 markets active 1d ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-10%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$158
14 days−$158
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$169
sports 11% −$16
weather 7% −$5
tech 5% +$10
other 2% +$5
world 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 38% -23.9%
≤30d 181 -17.5% -25.3% 42% 38% -23.5%
≤90d 181 -17.5% -25.3% 42% 38% -23.5%
all 203 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 37% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 37% -21.4%
10% -32.3% 31% -28.9%
15% -38.8% 26% -35.8%
20% -44.8% 21% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage419d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.53 · official $8.53 (match) · 550 history records