Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8295…eccb other 191 markets active 8h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+4%) realized +$39 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$27
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
world 23% +$3
politics 17% −$3
tech 8% −$2
sports 4% −$2
finance 4% +$4
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 32% -0.5%
≤30d 114 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 28% -8.9%
≤90d 114 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 28% -8.9%
all 114 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 28% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 28% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 23% -17.6%
15% -31.2% 18% -25.6%
20% -38.0% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions77
Markets (closed)114 / 191
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 60¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+97%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 76¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +49%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$21 +506%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$19 +309%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -56%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +334%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 8h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes $1 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $2 26h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 27h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes $1 42h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 42h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 43h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $1 44h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 83¢ $4 44h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 12¢ $1 2d
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 12¢ $0 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 11¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $3 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.19 · official $217.76 (match) · 569 history records