Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8295…5972 crypto 660 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$686 (+9%) realized +$686 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%316W / 344L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$5
14 days+$42
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 62% -8.3%
≤30d 93 -11.2% -19.6% 55% 54% -10.4%
≤90d 660 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 40% -3.9%
all 660 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 40% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 30% -13.1%
15% -31.9% 20% -21.5%
20% -38.6% 15% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses316 / 344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)660 / 660
History coverage65d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 660 Trades
no open positions (205 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$43 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$44 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$26 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$15 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $24 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1556 history records