Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8296…51e0
sports · 110 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 110
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day139.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+90%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 65¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 27¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$12 +195%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $2 +$4 +226%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$2 +238%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$69
sports 12% +$14
other 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $1 10m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $1 29m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $1 35m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $1 36m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 88¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 32% -17.7%
≤30d 104 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 32% -17.7%
≤90d 104 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 32% -17.7%
all 104 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 32% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover139.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 32% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 17% -25.6%
15% -29.9% 10% -32.8%
20% -36.8% 7% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.56 · official $31.56 (match) · 411 history records