Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x8297…5ac4 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$67 (+11%) realized +$299 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$173
other 37% −$222
crypto 8% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +55.4% +40.6% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤30d 6 +55.4% +40.6% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤90d 6 +55.4% +40.6% 67% 67% +33.2%
all 6 +55.4% +40.6% 67% 67% +33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.6% 67% +33.2%
10% +27.1% 67% +20.4%
15% +14.8% 67% +8.8%
20% +3.6% 67% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$50 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 40¢ $104 $94 −$10 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$54 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 +$59 +188%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 +$78 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $106 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $226 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.07 · official $94.07 (match) · 12 history records