Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8299…6d53 crypto 561 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,645 (-7%) realized −$3,716 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate61%343W / 217L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,936
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.3% +16.9% 82% 82% -0.9%
≤30d 11 +29.3% +16.9% 82% 82% -0.9%
≤90d 313 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 47% -18.6%
all 560 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 32% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 32% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 30% -24.1%
15% -29.5% 28% -31.4%
20% -36.4% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$66 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$3,716
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses343 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)560 / 561
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $56 $127 +$71 (+126%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$54 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$107 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $151 −$142 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $172 −$115 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$60 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$41 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 10 $104 −$101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $166 −$164 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 08 $189 −$185 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 08 $296 −$99 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 08 $50 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 08 $53 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 08 $162 −$157 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 08 $53 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 08 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 08 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 08 $55 +$31 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 08 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 08 $63 +$50 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 08 $119 −$117 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 08 $109 +$114 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 08 $51 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 08 $174 −$168 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 08 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 08 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 08 $74 +$72 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 08 $53 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 08 $96 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 08 $56 +$36 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $189 −$58 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $125 −$123 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 08 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 08 $101 +$73 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 08 $203 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 08 $154 −$149 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $68 −$66 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $58 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $53 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $75 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $93 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $50 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.96 · official $51.68 · 3500 history records