Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x829a…78fc sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-4%) realized +$80 · open −$171
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$22
other 24% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% -12.1%
≤30d 19 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% -12.1%
≤90d 19 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% -12.1%
all 19 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 42% -12.1%
10% -39.1% 42% -20.5%
15% -45.0% 26% -28.2%
20% -50.4% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$47 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 53¢ $172 $0 −$171 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $181 −$7 -4%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $113 −$47 -42%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $48 −$47 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $121 −$120 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $78 −$77 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $69 −$8 -12%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $578 +$140 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $140 −$138 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $150 +$44 +29%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $224 +$71 +32%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $159 +$77 +48%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $23 +$22 +94%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$5 -62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$18 +61%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $18 +$12 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 22m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 23m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $42 32m
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 55¢ $119 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 50¢ $55 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 58¢ $174 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $181 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes $12 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $48 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $49 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $121 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 23¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 50¢ $49 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $82 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 50¢ $61 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 53¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 56¢ $49 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $230 12h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $327 12h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $348 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $60 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $80 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $194 28h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $295 28h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 77¢ $150 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 66¢ $42 30h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 69¢ $30 30h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $151 30h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $235 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.99 · official $80.99 (match) · 49 history records