Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x829a…a748
sports · 1316 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$483 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$515 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized+$515
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses773 / 518
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1291 / 1316
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 25 History 1291 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$40
14 days+$113
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 25¢ 81¢ $12 $40 +$27 (+227%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 82¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$3 (+23%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ 32¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 76¢ 81¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 68¢ 19¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-72%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 31¢ 19¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Over 0¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 42¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $11 −$5 -47%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $4 +$5 +107%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$6 -34%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $15 +$4 +28%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$3 +78%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$11 +54%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $3 +$5 +146%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 +$6 +250%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $6 +$3 +55%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 +$18 +88%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $7 +$6 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$296
other 11% +$176
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 0m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 21m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 27m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $2 53m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $12 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 2h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $3 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $1 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 62¢ $3 5h
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 60¢ $2 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 60¢ $1 6h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 40¢ $2 6h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 37¢ $2 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 44¢ $1 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 55¢ $1 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $2 7h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $14 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 54% -6.9%
≤30d 682 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 55% -10.9%
≤90d 1291 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 53% -5.0%
all 1291 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 53% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 53% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 48% -14.1%
15% -25.0% 38% -22.4%
20% -32.3% 30% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.49 · official $147.49 (match) · 3500 history records