Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x829f…3486 sports 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,565 (-8%) realized −$3,559 · open −$1,006
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%58W / 75L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$692
7 days+$401
14 days+$605
30 days+$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,036
other 7% +$157
world 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 32% -2.1%
≤30d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 37% -0.8%
≤90d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 37% -0.8%
all 133 -17.4% -25.3% 44% 35% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 35% -15.5%
10% -32.4% 32% -23.6%
15% -39.0% 27% -31.0%
20% -45.0% 23% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$251 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$3,559
Unrealized−$1,006
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses58 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage337d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $188 $225 +$37 (+20%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 58¢ 0¢ $1,044 $1 −$1,043 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $248 −$56 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $978 −$458 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $356 −$239 -67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,103 −$15 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $507 +$77 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $238 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $480 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,405 +$54 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $233 +$27 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $223 +$287 +129%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $544 +$256 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,081 +$68 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $166 −$25 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $803 +$653 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $122 +$168 +137%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $269 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $480 −$208 -43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $260 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $212 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $550 +$159 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $257 +$293 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $190 −$186 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$89 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $420 −$176 -42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$120 +59%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Oct 07 $501 −$304 -61%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MOUZ (BO3) Oct 07 $1,196 −$547 -46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) Oct 07 $1,795 −$945 -53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) Oct 07 $703 −$223 -32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Oct 06 $1,405 −$1,405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) Oct 06 $602 −$602 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 06 $1,292 −$642 -50%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Oct 06 $251 −$251 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Oct 06 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Oct 05 $287 +$162 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Oct 05 $186 +$14 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 04 $394 −$234 -59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Oct 04 $200 +$514 +257%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 04 $550 −$251 -46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs HOTU (BO3) Oct 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) Oct 02 $1,189 +$921 +78%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 02 $1,180 −$717 -61%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs ENCE (BO3) Oct 01 $340 +$343 +101%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) Oct 01 $100 −$71 -70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs B8 (BO3) Oct 01 $147 +$146 +100%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ Sep 30 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy Sep 30 $538 −$38 -7%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Gentle Mates Sep 30 $670 +$151 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $192 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $192 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $148 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $1,044 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 46¢ $466 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $507 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $512 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $153 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $89 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $203 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $232 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $99 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $581 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $119 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $552 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 36¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 36¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.85 · official $225.85 (match) · 555 history records