Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x829f…ccfd sports 1358 markets active 6h ago coverage 207d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 206d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,748 (-4%) realized −$1,748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%740W / 617L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$45
14 days−$85
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,497
sports 38% −$960
other 7% −$387
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -32.1% -38.5% 45% 42% -35.4%
≤30d 87 -26.1% -33.1% 45% 43% -20.5%
≤90d 436 -34.0% -40.3% 40% 33% -18.1%
all 1357 -3.8% -12.9% 55% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 50% -15.3%
10% -21.3% 43% -23.4%
15% -28.9% 37% -30.8%
20% -35.8% 32% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses740 / 617
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1357 / 1358
History coverage207d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $24 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 32h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $1 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 86¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 3500 history records