Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x829f…0bda sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$340 (-52%) realized −$328 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$339
sports 36% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -61.3% -65.0% 12% 12% -68.3%
≤30d 8 -61.3% -65.0% 12% 12% -68.3%
≤90d 8 -61.3% -65.0% 12% 12% -68.3%
all 8 -61.3% -65.0% 12% 12% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.0% 12% -68.3%
10% -68.3% 12% -71.3%
15% -71.4% 12% -74.1%
20% -74.2% 12% -76.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 41¢ 42¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 45¢ 44¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birrell Indianna Spink $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Netherlands $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $50 +$40 +81%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $21 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Ammar Faleh Alhogbani Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 −$178 -70%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $162 −$161 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.67 · official $106.67 (match) · 21 history records