Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82a1…ed76 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 17% +$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.6% -12.8% 14% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 13% -9.2%
all 37 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -9.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage450d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 −$9 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $44 −$3 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $52 +$10 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $12 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 −$1 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $46 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $37 +$6 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 30 $1 $0 -39%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 27 $14 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $21 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $18 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $39 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 60¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $0 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $40 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $8 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records