Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82a2…32c3 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-7%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2
other 41% −$7
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -17.2%
≤30d 24 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 46% -19.1%
≤90d 24 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 46% -19.1%
all 24 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 46% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -19.1%
10% -27.2% 42% -26.9%
15% -34.2% 42% -33.9%
20% -40.6% 33% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 +$1 +69%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $18 −$1 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $3 +$1 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 26m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 15d
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 15d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.08 · official $5.08 (match) · 50 history records