Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x82aa…eeb9 crypto 452 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%219W / 227L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$496
7 days−$371
14 days+$93
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$349
sports 31% −$555
other 19% +$633
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 446 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 48% -10.6%
≤90d 446 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 48% -10.6%
all 446 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 48% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 48% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 47% -19.1%
15% -26.1% 42% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses219 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions6
Markets (closed)446 / 452
History coverage21d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $437 $453 +$16 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $109 +$33 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$46 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $146 +$80 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$34 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $147 −$88 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $108 +$49 +46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $108 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$40 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $50 44m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $109 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.54 · official $656.55 (match) · 925 history records