Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
82 0x82ab…1f23 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$212 (+5%) realized +$227 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$291
world 4% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 33 -80.1% -82.0% 15% 9% -4.6%
all 33 -80.1% -82.0% 15% 9% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.0% 9% -4.6%
10% -83.7% 6% -13.8%
15% -85.3% 6% -22.1%
20% -86.7% 3% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$23 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized+$227
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage88d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $845 $830 −$15 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? May 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 06 $393 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $357 +$36 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $500 +$450 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $668 +$118 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $483 +$184 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $850 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $216 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 71d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $33 74d
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 75d
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $400 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $393 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.89 · official $829.89 (match) · 69 history records