Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ae…2890 crypto 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,296 (-123%) realized −$26,296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%80W / 566L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day151.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,052
politics 3% −$9
other 1% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 -96.3% -96.6% 0% 0% -97.6%
≤30d 646 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 4% -72.3%
≤90d 646 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 4% -72.3%
all 646 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 4% -72.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.3% 4% -72.3%
10% ← realistic here -77.7% 1% -75.0%
15% -79.8% 0% -77.4%
20% -81.8% 0% -79.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -137% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -137% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$161 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses80 / 566
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)646 / 191
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day151.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 462 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$47 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $231 −$465 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$69 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $96 −$192 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$26 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $292 −$587 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$124 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $128 −$257 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $213 −$429 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$16 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $333 −$670 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$30 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$308 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $221 −$445 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$90 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$41 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $282 −$568 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$80 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$55 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $419 −$842 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$41 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $631 −$1,269 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$109 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$415 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $272 −$547 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $348 −$699 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$50 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $290 −$585 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$50 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $321 −$648 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$12 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $78 −$157 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $293 −$590 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $127 −$256 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $70 −$141 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$213 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$96 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $133 −$267 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $428 −$862 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$29 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $211 −$423 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $355 −$714 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $75 −$151 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $364 −$733 -201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $85 9m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $40 9m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $82 9m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $93 9m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $94 9m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $93 9m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 62¢ $76 9m
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $173 9m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 10m
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 10m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 10m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $42 10m
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $41 10m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $49 10m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 64¢ $45 10m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $89 10m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $128 10m
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $19 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? SELL No 90¢ $28 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $42 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 80¢ $44 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $46 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records