Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82b0…7c38 sports 352 markets active 13h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,712 (+4%) realized +$1,729 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%165W / 184L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$697est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,254
7 days+$253
14 days−$85
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 47% -8.2%
≤30d 349 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 47% -8.9%
≤90d 349 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 47% -8.9%
all 349 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 47% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 46% -17.6%
15% -28.7% 40% -25.6%
20% -35.7% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$107 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses165 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$697
Open positions2
Markets (closed)349 / 352
History coverage21d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 55¢ 51¢ $230 $214 −$17 (-7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 54¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $37 +$26 +70%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $304 +$188 +62%
Wong vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $87 +$75 +86%
Set Handicap: Palicova (-1.5) vs Ansari (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $303 +$144 +48%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $304 +$192 +63%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $368 +$115 +31%
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$18 +238%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $783 −$38 -5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $135 +$111 +82%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $162 +$148 +91%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $252 −$39 -16%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $367 +$369 +101%
Set Handicap: Dudeney (-1.5) vs Sakatsume (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $196 −$192 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $160 −$156 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur Jun 14 $35 +$9 +24%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $121 +$39 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $489 −$481 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $509 +$849 +167%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $253 +$132 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $264 +$72 +27%
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Leones de Ponce Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $435 +$204 +47%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $164 +$42 +26%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $124 −$123 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $0 $0 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $246 −$1 -0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$246 -98%
Harry Wendelken vs. Adam Walton: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 +$2 +414%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 −$158 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $218 −$215 -98%
Kovacevic vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +24%
Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Sanchis (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
David Jorda Sanchis vs. Tristan Boyer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $509 +$740 +145%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $252 +$73 +29%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $0 $0 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$250 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $253 +$132 +52%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 55¢ $234 12h
Wong vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 13h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 61¢ $304 13h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $162 14h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 58¢ $37 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 53¢ $87 15h
Set Handicap: Palicova (-1.5) vs Ansari (+1.5) BUY Palicova 40¢ $2 16h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $447 16h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 67¢ $303 17h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $496 17h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $483 17h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 75¢ $302 17h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 74¢ $66 17h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $304 19h
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 29¢ $7 19h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) SELL Navarro 50¢ $745 20h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $174 20h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $304 20h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $304 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $5 21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $246 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 50¢ $3 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 54¢ $135 22h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 40¢ $310 39h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 20¢ $162 39h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon SELL Lucciana Perez Alarcon 65¢ $99 39h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $737 39h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon SELL Lucciana Perez Alarcon 58¢ $114 40h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Lucciana Perez Alarcon 71¢ $252 40h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $99 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.61 · official $214.61 (match) · 652 history records