Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b3…0c0e crypto 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$969 (-13%) realized −$967 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%77W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$132
14 days−$185
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$680
sports 22% −$373
other 22% −$67
world 0% +$7
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 30% +2.7%
≤30d 105 -22.0% -29.5% 27% 27% -26.4%
≤90d 116 -16.8% -24.7% 26% 26% -30.0%
all 283 -13.3% -21.5% 27% 27% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 27% -24.3%
10% -29.1% 27% -31.5%
15% -35.9% 25% -38.1%
20% -42.2% 24% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$22 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$967
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses77 / 206
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions9
Markets (closed)283 / 293
History coverage119d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 28¢ $128 $131 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$37 +146%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 +$48 +159%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$80 +781%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$84 +543%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $86 −$85 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $81 −$79 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$83 +105%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$35 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $9 −$7 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$60 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $31 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $26 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $73 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $10 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.81 · official $299.81 (match) · 744 history records