Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b4…5ca0 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$48
crypto 23% −$31
other 23% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -11.7%
≤30d 7 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -11.7%
≤90d 7 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -11.7%
all 7 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -11.7%
10% -26.9% 43% -20.2%
15% -34.0% 43% -27.9%
20% -40.5% 43% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$31 +152%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.70 · official $29.70 (match) · 16 history records