Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82b6…2853
other · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $18 +$1 +4%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $17 +$8 +47%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Apr 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Sinners' gross more than $37m on opening weekend? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2025? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $8 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $20 −$1 -4%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $14 +$4 +25%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Mar 04 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$2
other 35% +$6
politics 16% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% +$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $47 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $29 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $2 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $6 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $8 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.9% -6.0% 29% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 11 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 9% -8.7%
all 49 -0.8% -10.2% 49% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -8.4%
10% -18.8% 6% -17.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 163 history records