Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
82 0x82b8…8924 sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-3%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$197
crypto 13% +$242
other 5% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 50% +21.9%
≤30d 6 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 50% +21.9%
≤90d 101 -19.8% -27.5% 39% 39% -23.1%
all 132 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 53% -11.6%
10% -16.6% 52% -20.0%
15% -24.7% 50% -27.8%
20% -32.1% 45% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$45 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 62
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage276d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$111 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$114 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$22 +84%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 20 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Apr 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $50 −$1 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 20 $50 +$62 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 20 $50 +$47 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 20 $50 +$92 +184%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Apr 20 $50 +$37 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 19 $50 +$47 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $50 +$48 +97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $50 +$90 +180%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $50 +$38 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 19 $50 +$31 +62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 19 $50 +$47 +93%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $50 +$34 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 18 $50 +$59 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $50 +$75 +150%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 18 $50 +$50 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 18 $50 +$41 +83%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $50 +$70 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $112 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Spurs 65¢ $19 62d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Spurs 65¢ $8 62d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Spurs 62¢ $31 62d
Utah vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 58¢ $49 62d
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 59¢ $50 62d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $50 63d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $50 63d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $50 63d
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) BUY Thunder 57¢ $50 63d
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) BUY Magic 49¢ $50 63d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs BUY New York Mets 44¢ $50 63d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $50 63d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 51¢ $50 63d
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $50 63d
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 44¢ $50 63d
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $50 63d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $50 63d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $50 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records