Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b9…0c00 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+12%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 40% -5.8%
≤30d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 42% -8.5%
≤90d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 42% -8.5%
all 40 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 42% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 42% -8.5%
10% -20.1% 28% -17.3%
15% -27.8% 25% -25.3%
20% -34.9% 20% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records