Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82b9…c6ce sports 928 markets active 1h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,315 (-18%) realized −$23,907 · open −$408
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%516W / 356L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,186
7 days−$1,184
14 days−$746
30 days−$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$21,208
sports 26% −$1,683
politics 7% −$153
world 5% +$1,360
tech 4% −$1,533
crypto 4% −$16
culture 3% −$1,252
finance 0% +$87
weather 0% −$94
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 44% -35.3%
≤30d 155 -6.8% -15.6% 58% 54% -16.5%
≤90d 335 -6.2% -15.2% 59% 53% -15.2%
all 872 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 52% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 52% -26.8%
10% -23.6% 42% -33.8%
15% -30.9% 28% -40.2%
20% -37.7% 18% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$129 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$5,255
Realized−$23,907
Unrealized−$408
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses516 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions54
Markets (closed)872 / 928
History coverage516d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $500 $563 +$63 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $525 +$25 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $300 $357 +$57 (+19%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $300 $354 +$54 (+18%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 66¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-13%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 78¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 86¢ 79¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? No 23¢ 84¢ $25 $91 +$66 (+265%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 58¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $501 +$45 +9%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $251 +$32 +13%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +6%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $26 +$74 +291%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $350 −$76 -22%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $201 +$19 +10%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$17 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $25 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $44 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $13 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 71¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $315 3d
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? SELL No 45¢ $218 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 78¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $25 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $50 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $101 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 80¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 64¢ $51 4d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 75¢ $25 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 71¢ $50 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,255.40 · official $5,261.75 (match) · 2369 history records