Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82bf…e7b1 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-5%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%54W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$172
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$173
sports 9% −$10
other 5% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.6% -21.9% 47% 41% -7.0%
≤30d 101 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 101 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 44% -14.4%
all 111 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 44% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -16.4%
10% -20.1% 35% -24.4%
15% -27.8% 24% -31.7%
20% -34.9% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses54 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage137d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 05 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $307 −$101 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$96 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $11 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records